The ceasefire is still technically holding, to the extent that no overt hostilities have been reported yet, but the rhetoric has hardened dangerously. The week ahead will also clarify whether the Islamabad failure was a negotiating tactic or whether Washington has genuinely locked itself into a position from which the only exits are climb-down, escalation, or the slow bleed of a new status quo that nobody chose and nobody controls. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
The purge in Washington does not pause the war. Strikes continue, Hormuz remains closed, and Brent crude is still dancing around $109 a barrel. For India, the command chaos in the Pentagon is another layer of uncertainty piled on five weeks of conflict that was already straining every buffer Delhi has.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar addressed the Rajya Sabha on India's position regarding the escalating conflict in West Asia, emphasising the need for peace, dialogue, and the safety of civilians, while also prioritising India's energy security and trade interests.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
India's peak power demand is projected to hit 270 GW this summer, surpassing last year's record of 250 GW.
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The American economy is resilient and durable enough to withstand the challenge posed by the ongoing economic crisis in China, the White House said while asking Beijing to move towards a transparent economy and a market-based currency system.
'The BJP is keeping its options open and that the final decision is still tightly held.' 'That is consistent with the party's tendency to preserve suspense, avoid premature factional conflict, and use leadership selection as a way of resetting internal hierarchies.'
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'This encourages escapism through the politics and economics of nationalism, made worse by tribalism or nativism, the package accompanied inevitably by the erosion of institutional bulwarks and therefore State capture by powerful businessmen,' notes T N Ninan.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
'In my entire career, whenever friends, relatives, or associates have sought my counsel, I have told them consistently: Stay away from equities. Buy gold. Place funds in fixed deposits. Acquire some raw land.' 'That is all one genuinely needs to build meaningful, enduring wealth, without the attendant anxiety of equity market participation.'
'We were in a heavily nuclearised environment. China had tested for Pakistan in the 1980s and helped their missile programme stay just one step behind us.'
Although extensive air attacks have been carried out to destroy most of Iran's defence capabilities, the latter's resilience and sustenance during the war clearly indicate that the US landing force would encounter severe resistance in the operation, explains Commodore Venugopal Vengalil (retd).
Opposition parties are demanding a full Parliament discussion on the West Asia conflict, criticising the government's silence and calling for a contingency plan to protect India's energy security and citizens.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
China's latest defence budget surges to $275 billion, fueling its ambitious military modernisation program and intensifying geopolitical dynamics in the region.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
A senior US official has emphasised India's crucial role in maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and ensuring a balanced power dynamic in Asia, advocating for stronger defence ties between the two nations.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
'After the Galwan clash, the rules of engagement changed with the army commanders allowed to use any means at their disposal as they deem fit for tactical operations.'
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The other dominant fear among the people is the irrational behaviour of people, once the lockdown is lifted.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'TTP has vowed to take revenge for the attacks that Pakistan is carrying out against Afghanistan.' 'To diminish this threat, Pakistan is hitting Afghanistan hard.'
The recent financial crisis and prospects of a prolonged downturn in global economic activity have once again invigorated the critiques of global financial integration and free trade.
'If movement remains stalled for three to four months, more than 300,000 recruitments from India could be affected.'
The Economic Survey, to be tabled in Parliament on Thursday, is likely to provide an assessment of the impact of the global financial meltdown on the Indian economy and outline the strategy to spur growth and contain the mounting fiscal deficit.
A customer wanting to buy a car would have to wait a long time for delivery.
Staring at a permanent paralysis: Indian footballers urge FIFA intervention on ISL
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed advocates for building democratic institutions over military intervention in resolving international conflicts, particularly in the context of the escalating West Asia crisis. He also discusses the impact of the conflict on the Maldives' tourism-dependent economy and calls for a stronger, more understanding India in the Indian Ocean Region.
Due to India's limited dependence on external demand and strong fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, the global economic and financial crisis had a relatively muted effect on the country, the Obama Administration told the US Congress on Thursday.
